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东方证券:预计业绩翻倍增长 维持金科股份“增持”评级

www.cafetijucano.com2019-07-15
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Leju Financial News Yang Qian On July 8, Oriental Securities released a research report, predicting that the EPS of Jinke shares in 2019-2021 is 0.99/1.32/1.72 yuan. Comparable company 2019 PE valuation is 9X, giving the company 2019 PE multiple 9X, corresponding target price of 8.91 yuan.

According to the research report, Jinke's profit margin and settlement scale have both increased, driving the rapid growth of performance. The company expects to achieve a net profit of 2 to 2.6 billion yuan in the first half of 2019, a year-on-year increase of 200% to 290%. The reason for the rapid growth in performance was mainly due to the increase in the scale of sales and the increase in gross profit. The company's sales scale has expanded rapidly in the past two years. The sales in 2017 and 2018 were 63 billion and 118.8 billion, with growth rates of 97.5% and 88.6% respectively. The rapid expansion of sales has provided the company with a wealth of settlement resources, driving the increase in the scale of carry-over. The increase in gross profit from the improvement of gross profit margin, the gross profit margin in 2018 was 28.6%, an increase of 7.3 percentage points year-on-year. In the first quarter of 2019, the gross profit margin was 25.4%, an increase of 5.1 percentage points year-on-year, continuing the improvement trend.

The sales amount and new construction area continue to grow, and future revenue growth is expected. According to Kerui data, the company achieved sales of 78.9 billion yuan from January to June 2019, a year-on-year increase of 30.4%. According to the company's announcement, the newly started area in 2018 is 27 million square meters, an increase of 146.4%. The continuous rapid growth of sales amount and new construction area will provide guarantee for revenue and performance growth in the next 1-2 years. Judging from the sales area and land reserve, the Chongqing market still has a large impact on the company. In 2018, the company's market share in the Chongqing market reached 8.8%, and the sales amount accounted for 40.6% of the total sales amount.

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